PT Trimegah Bangun Persada TbkFull report →1 / 14
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PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk

Harita Nickel is a family-controlled Indonesian producer that mines nickel ore on Obi Island and processes it into stainless-steel and battery-grade metal, trading about a third below its 2023 listing price.

Listed at Rp1,250 in 2023, the shares peaked near Rp1,545 in February 2026 and fell to Rp780 by June before settling at Rp825 — down about 47% from the peak while earnings set a record.
Rp825
Share price
Rp52tn
Market cap
Rp29.6tn
FY2025 revenue
5.8x
Trailing P/E
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The statements

Revenue nearly tripled through a nickel-price slump

FY2019 → FY2024as reported · Rp
RevenueRp27.0T+13%
Operating margin26.6%−2.9pp
Net incomeRp7.7T+9%
EPSRp101.10+9%
Free cash flowRp5.2T+23%
Open the full statements →
As-reported annual statements; the three years this reader asked to see.
  • Growth. Revenue nearly tripled from Rp9.6tn (FY2022) to Rp27.0tn (FY2024) as new smelters ramped — volume-led, achieved while nickel prices fell.
  • Margins. Operating margin stepped down from the low-40s% to the high-20s% as processing scaled, yet net income kept rising, reaching Rp7.7tn in FY2024.
  • Cash. With the build-out largely done, free cash flow turned strongly positive — near Rp5tn in FY2024 — and net debt stayed light.
Where profit comes from

A third of pre-tax profit is income from stakes it doesn't control

Associate income as % of pre-tax profit
The reported result leans further on the associates as nickel falls.
  • Key finding. Rp4.09tn — about a third of Harita's Rp12.15tn FY2025 pre-tax profit, and 69% of it by Q1 2026 — is equity-method income from associates it does not consolidate, and the most concentrated stake, ONC (40%-owned), carries ~Rp4.18tn of un-impairment-tested goodwill (~9% of equity) created largely by buying 20% of ONC from the 81%-controlling parent for US$262.9m in June 2025.
  • The other side. HPL and KPS carry at essentially net-asset value; the ONC price was set against an independent KJPP appraisal; and ONC remitted Rp1.98tn (US$120m) of cash within the same year — nearly half the purchase price.
  • What it's worth. The ONC goodwill is about Rp66 a share — near 8% of the Rp825 price — and a full write-down would cost roughly 47% of FY2025 profit to owners. Material, not existential.
What it is

An integrated nickel miner and smelter on one Indonesian island

Segment revenue, FY2024
Before Rp4.5tn of inter-segment eliminations; the mine feeds the smelters.
  • The model. Harita mines nickel laterite on Obi Island and processes it two ways: RKEF into ferronickel for stainless steel, and HPAL into battery-grade material with cobalt as a by-product.
  • Ownership. One family holds about 82% and Glencore has bought a 7% stake; the shares listed in April 2023 at Rp1,250 and now trade near Rp825, roughly a third lower.
  • Scale. FY2025 revenue was Rp29.6tn with Rp9.0tn of profit to owners — a business that has grown every year since listing, even as nickel prices fell.
The cost edge

Captive ore makes mining far higher-margin than smelting

Cash margin by product (1H24)
ProductCash margin
Limonite ore63%
Saprolite ore62%
MHP (HPAL, associate)53%
FeNi (RKEF, consolidated)26%
The layer Harita owns outright — RKEF ferronickel — carries the thinnest cushion.
  • Mining wins. In FY2025 captive mining earned a 45.3% gross margin against 20.6% for the consolidated RKEF processing that generates most of the revenue.
  • Why. The smelters run on near-costless ore the group digs itself; independent 2022 estimates put mine cash cost near US$1,000 a tonne of nickel, first-quartile in Indonesia.
  • The catch. The thickest cushions sit in mining and the HPAL associates; the ferronickel line Harita fully owns is the first to feel a further price fall.
Operating leverage

A 4% revenue dip cut operating profit 46% in early 2026

Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026 (Rp tn)
Consolidated lines contracted; associate income tripled and carried the group.
  • Key finding. The layer Harita fully owns is its most price-exposed one: consolidated RKEF processing earned a 20.6% gross margin in FY2025 versus 45.3% for captive mining, and when nickel fell in Q1 2026 a 4% revenue dip cut consolidated operating profit 46% to Rp1.05tn — group profit rose only because associate income tripled to 69% of pre-tax profit.
  • The leverage. That is roughly 11x deleverage: with the smelter fleet full, the volume growth that carried earnings through the downturn has run out, and price now passes almost undamped into profit.
  • Not insolvency. Mining near US$1,000 a tonne and net debt at 7% of equity keep the group cash-generative far below today's price — this is earnings quality and price exposure, not survival risk.
The end market

Three years of surplus, made mostly in Indonesia

LME nickel — annual average
Down 41% from the 2022 peak; the shares trade near six times earnings on that price.
  • Oversupply. Harita sells into a third straight year of global nickel surplus — structural, and largely Indonesia's own doing, which is also why Indonesia can throttle it.
  • The lever. Jakarta signalled tighter ore quotas: the 2026 RKAB allocation of 265mt sits well below 2025 output near 371mt, and one peer's mine idled for months awaiting a permit.
  • The tailwind. Battery demand is the genuine growth — about 14% of nickel use, up from 4% — but it reaches Harita mostly through its HPAL associates, not its consolidated smelters.
Where the cash goes

Strong cash flow, mostly recycled into the associates

FY2025 operating cash flow and its uses (Rp tn)
The first bar is the source; the rest are uses. Cash on hand still slipped to Rp6.0tn.
  • It converts. FY2025 operating cash flow was Rp8.6tn against just Rp0.58tn of capex — the plants are built — for roughly Rp8tn of free cash before growth investment.
  • Where it went. Rp5.08tn went into the associates, mostly buying more of ONC; Rp2.05tn in dividends and Rp1.72tn repaying debt; cash on hand still edged down to Rp6.0tn.
  • For a value buyer. The cash is real but largely re-exported into growth that surfaces as associate income, not consolidated revenue — return of capital competes with reinvestment.
Ownership and pay

Family-controlled at 82%, with lean, non-dilutive pay

Share register, Dec 2025
Zero equity held by the executives who run the company.
  • Skin in the game. One family controls about 82% of Harita, so management and minority holders align on the cheap things: one dividend that every share receives equally.
  • Pay. Board pay is a lean, cash-only Rp51.1bn — about 0.6% of profit — with zero equity compensation, so the controlling owner is not diluting outside holders.
  • The watch item. Alignment is harder to verify operationally: about 22% of revenue and 16% of cost of goods flow through Harita-group entities on terms the company says may differ from arm's length.
The balance sheet

Light leverage through the trough of its own cycle

Rp3.36tn
Net debt
7%
Net debt / equitydown from 12% a year earlier
Rp8.6tn
Operating cash flow~15x capex
Rp6.0tn
Cash on hand
FY2025 balance sheet and cash flow.
  • Near-zero gearing. Rp9.4tn of bank debt against Rp6.0tn of cash leaves net debt of Rp3.36tn — about 7% of equity and under half a year of operating cash flow.
  • Coverage. Operating cash flow of Rp8.6tn ran near 15 times capex, so growth and dividends were funded without new borrowing.
  • Why it matters. A price shock compresses earnings but not solvency: across every scenario the report models, the bankruptcy risk a cautious buyer most wants to avoid stays remote.
The share price

Down 47% from its February peak while earnings hit a record

Peaked near Rp1,545 in February, troughed at Rp780 in June, now Rp825.
  • The multiple fell, not the profit. Earnings rose every year to a record in FY2025, yet the shares carry about 5.8x trailing earnings today versus roughly 11x at February's high.
  • A fallen star. The stock trades about a third below its April-2023 listing price of Rp1,250, even as revenue and profit kept climbing through the downturn.
  • The street. Thirteen analysts rate it Buy, none Hold or Sell, with a mean target near Rp1,570 — roughly 90% above the current price.
Estimates and target

Cheap on trailing profit, but forecasts are flat, not compounding

12-month price targets vs today
Thirteen Buys, no Holds or Sells; consensus longer-run EPS growth near 17%.
  • The gap. At Rp825 the shares sit roughly 90% below the mean twelve-month target of Rp1,570, and below the entire published target range.
  • But flat near-term. Consensus puts FY2026–FY2027 net profit at Rp9.6–10.7tn, at or below FY2025's Rp10.97tn on broadly flat revenue — the upside leans on a nickel recovery, not near-term growth.
  • Income while waiting. The 30%-of-profit dividend policy implies roughly Rp43 a share on FY2025 earnings — a yield near 5% at today's price.
What Rp52tn buys

The discount lives in low leverage and cheap earnings, not cheap assets

What the Rp52.1tn market value contains
The residual values the mines and smelters at about 3.4x their operating profit.
  • The arithmetic. At Rp825 the market values Harita near Rp52tn — about 5.8x earnings and 1.35x book, with net debt near zero. Roughly 45% is covered by stakes that paid Rp1.98tn of cash last year.
  • The residual. Net of those stakes at book, the mines and smelters cost about Rp28tn for Rp8.4tn of operating profit — near 3.4x, on an earnings base that has begun to contract.
  • The read. The margin of safety is genuine but specific: it sits in a fortress balance sheet and a low cash-earnings multiple, not in a discount to net assets — a bet on a trough the company keeps growing through.
What to watch

A fortress balance sheet and cheap multiple, on earnings leaning more on associates and a nickel price it can't set.

Read the full report →

This distills a guided study built chapter by chapter, from the financial statements to the scenarios.

Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-16 · For information, not investment advice.